JPMorgan created the “Volfefe Index” — a reference to Trump’s viral 2017 “covfefe” tweet which remains unexplained — in an attempt to measure how Trump’s tweets impact volatility in U.S. interest rates.
Out of about 4,000 non-retweets occurring during market hours from 2018 to the present, only 146 moved the market.
Most of Trump’s tweets come around noon to 2:00 pm, with a 1:00 pm tweet roughly three times as likely to arrive at any other hour of the afternoon or evening, according to J.P. Morgan’s report.
Trump’s 3:00 am tweets are also more common than 3:00 pm tweets, which can be a nuisance for U.S. rates markets, since overnight market depth tends to be thin.Trump is presumably asleep from 5:00 am to 10:00 am, according to the report, since there’s a lull in tweeting activity during that time.
» Read more about the Volfefe Index at CNBC